Market Radar: The Trading And Investing Week Ahead. June 23-27, 2014.

[ 0 ] June 20, 2014 |

The Week Ahead- June 23-27

After the excitement of the FOMC markets are ready to end the week on a whimper. We learned this week that the Fed was not concerned about inflation but I would argue that the market does not feel the same way. The Fed has been relatively accurate (I know plenty of folks who debate this but for the sake of actual data that we see on the headlines) so I guess I will give them the benefit of the doubt. But it will remain a hot topic and will have participants closely watching the bottom line and in particular expenses and cost of goods sold for the upcoming earnings season. Taking a look at key items next week:

1) PMI Prelims- Starting Sunday night and into Monday morning we will receive the preliminary Manufacturing and Services data for the U.S., China, and Europe. The data will roll out Sunday night and will help set the pace for trade when we open Monday. I think China will be the key here as that seems to be the biggest question mark. I would not be surprised to see a down tick in European data but I do not think that would have a major impact given the QE program on tap. Early expectations is for the U.S. to see a slight m/m decline from May.

2) The Ukraine- We are seeing headlines of Russia building back up on the borders and sending tanks across the board to support Separatists. We have seen this before so I do not want to jump to conclusions but it does bear watching. Of particular interest is the new Ukrainian President is set to sign a free trade agreement with Europe next Friday. Recall the issues originally blew up when the pro-Russian PM scrapped plans to sign the agreement. So we will need to see if this agreement once again sparks fighting.

3) U.S. Economic Data- Housing data will be prominent early as Existing Home Sales (Mon) and FHA and Case-Shiller Prices (Tue) hit wires. Also of note for housing, LEN (Thu) and KBH (Fri) will be reporting earnings next week. I think the number that will draw the greatest attention is the PCE Prices (Thu). The key is if this number is also ‘noisy’. Personal Income & Spending will also be released on Thursday.

4) International Economic Data- Sentiment data will dominate. We already mentioned the PMI numbers due out ahead of the U.S. market open. Toward the end of the week we have a steady run of European Business and Consumer surveys. Germany’s Ifo survey on Tuesday will also be watched. South Korea also has retail sales and Industrial Production reports due out Thursday which will be watched as a potential read through on semiconductor activity.

5) Iraq- Another geopolitical hot spot. Crude Oil will be closely watched with the CL Q4 attempting to break out above 106.

The Weekend

Sunday: Israel Industrial Production (6am); Japan Manufacturing PMI (9:30pm); China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (9:45am).

Monday, June 23

U.S. Economic Data: Markit Manufacturing PMI (9:45am); May Existing Home Sales (10am)… Earnings: MU… International Economic Data: Singapore Inflation (1am); BoJs Kuroda speaks (2am); France Manufacturing & Services PMI- prelim (3am); Germany France Manufacturing & Services PMI- prelim (3:30am); Eurozone Manufacturing & Services PMI- prelim (4am); Poland Retail Sales, Unemployment Rate (4am); BoE Credit Conditions (4:30am); Hong Kong Current Account, Inflation (4:30am); Israel Unemployment Rate (6am); Israel Interest Rate Decision (9am); Mexico Unemployment Rate (9am); Argentina Current Account, Q1 GDP (3pm)… Conferences: EU meets to discuss Ukraine; Citi London Financials; Roth Natural Resources; Goldman Sachs Business Services; Roth Healthcare; Morgan Stanley REIT.

Tuesday, June 24

U.S. Economic Data: Fed’s Plosser speaks (8:05am); April Case-Shiller 20-city Index (9am); April FHFA Housing Price Index (9am); May New Home Sales (10am); June Consumer Confidence (10am); Fed’s Dudley speaks (2pm); Treasury Secretary Lew to testify in front of Financial Stability Oversight Council… Earnings: CCL, WAG… International Economic Data: Finland Unemployment Rate (2am); Switzerland Trade Balance (2am); Germany IFO Business Survey (4am); Portugal Current Account (6am); Turkey Interest Rate Decision (7am); Turkey Business Survey & Capacity Utilization (7:30am); Brazil Current Account (9:30am); Brazil Foreign Direct Investment (9:30am); South Korea Consumer Confidence (5pm); Philippine Trade Balance (9pm)… Conferences: T & DTV testify in front of House Subcommittee on Regulatory Reform; UBS Pharma; UBS Small/Midcap; Global Hunter Energy; JMP Healthcare; Oppenheimer Consumer.

Wednesday, June 25

U.S. Economic Data: MBA Mortgage Index (7am); May Durable Goods Orders (8:30am); Q1 GDP-third estimate (8:30am); Petroleum Inventories (10:30am)… Earnings: BKS, LNN, MON, BBBY… International Economic Data: Germany Retail Sales, Consumer Confidence (2am); Spain PPI (3am); Italy Retail Sales, Consumer Confidence (4am); Argentina Industrial Production (3pm)… Conferences: Credit Suisse Basic Materials; TAP Investors Day.

Thursday, June 26

U.S. Economic Data: Initial Claims (8:30am); May Personal Income & Spending (8:30am); May PCE Prices (8:30am); Natural Gas Inventories (10:30am)… Earnings: LEN, SCHN, WGO, NKE… International Economic Data: Singapore Industrial Production (1am); Finland PPI (2am); France Business & Consumer Confidence (2:45am); Sweden PPI (3:30am); Norway Unemployment Rate (4am); Hong Kong Trade Balance (4:30am); U.K. Current Account, Q1 GDP (4:30am); South Africa PPI (5:30am); Brazil Unemployment Rate (8am); South Korea Retail Sales, Industrial & Manufacturing Production; (7pm); Japan CPI, Household Spending, Unemployment Rate, Retail Sales (7:30pm); Thailand Industrial Production (11:30pm)… Conferences: J.P. Morgan European Healthcare.

Friday, June 27

U.S. Economic Data: June Michigan Sentiment- Final (9:55am)… Earnings: CMC, FINL, KBH… International Economic Data: Ukraine’s Poroshenko to sign free trade agreement with EU; Germany Import Prices (2am); France PPI, Q1 GDP (2:45am); Spain Inflation, Retail Sales (3am); Switzerland Leading Indicators (3am); Turkey Consumer Confidence (3am); Sweden Trade Balance, Retail Sales (3:30am); Thailand Current Account (3:30am); Italy Business Confidence (4am); Spain Business Confidence (4am); Eurozone Business & Consumer Confidence (5am); Greece Business & Consumer Confidence (5am); India Deposit Growth, Bank Loan Growth (7:30am); Germany Inflation Rate (8am); Canada PPI (8:30am); Brazil Consumer Confidence (10am).

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Category: Markets and Trading