Thoughts On ” BREXIT “. There Is Much More To This Upcoming Referendum Than Meets The Eye! By Ron Insana, Insana Insights And CNBC
Written By Ron Insana, Insana Insights And CNBC. Monday June 20, 2016
Some Thoughts On Brexit.
World markets have adapted the work of Jean-Paul Sartre today, debuting “No Brexit” in bourses around the world.
Two new U.K. polls show a slight advantage among the number of Brits who would prefer to remain in the European Union over those who would prefer to leave. That’s led to a surge in the value of the British Pound and roughly 3% rallies in stock markets across Europe.
And despite the global markets’ frothy optimism about the outcome of the upcoming referendum, it would appear, however, that the existential threat posed to the EU is not over just yet. The new polls show only a dead heat in the upcoming vote, which makes it far too early, and far too close, to call. Polls are notoriously inaccurate, even this close to an event.
The U.K. referendum has far-reaching consequences, even beyond the economic impact of whether Britain remains in the EU. The economic consequences for Britain are, on their face, immediately obvious.
But there are far larger consequences to leaving than business, travel and trade.
The seeds of an integrated Europe were sown in the aftermath of two World Wars. The Treaty of Rome, in 1957, inextricably linked the futures of Germany and France, in particular, by creating a European Economic Community, which gave way to the European Common Market and then, the European Union.
That market, which included most of the Continent, could survive, and thrive, only if Germany completely abandoned the territorial ambitions that drove it to wage two wars which resulted in 100 million deaths, countless casualties and the utter destruction of European infrastructure.
By tying Germany’s future to the success of the whole, it was believed that devastating wars could be brought to an end. It’s been almost 60 years since the Treaty was signed, and the single currency bloc was ultimately formed. It is now hanging by a thread, recent positive polls notwithstanding.
Many in the U.K. believe that by pulling out, amid concerns over economic and political policy divisions; the surging refuge crisis; the inability of peripheral Europe to adhere to the terms of membership; and the lack of a coordinated plan to stimulate the European economy, Britain simply would be better off on its own. However, if the U.K. were to pull out, many fear the Union cannot hold.
They fear Scotland, for instance, would immediately resurrect plans to secede from the U.K. and similar secessionist movements would spring up all over Europe. Those movements, some argue, would spring up, not only among member countries, but also among regions of member countries, which have attempted to secede in recent years. Catalonia, in Spain, immediately jumps to mind.
And then, of course, could come the dissolution of the entire Union, the collapse of the single currency experiment, and the return of the Deutsche Mark, Lira, Franc, Peseta, Escudo and Drachma.
Currency volatility could explode, markets would be thrown into turmoil, and individual economies would collapse while political alliances could be riven, giving way to ancient antagonisms.
The political and geo-political consequences could be grave, as well.
Certain historic rivalries, whether between Germany and France, or more important, Germany and Russia, could re-emerge, with significant, and potentially devastating, consequences. We’ve seen this movie before.
There is much more to this upcoming referendum than meets the eye.
The existentialism of Sartre may turn to European nihilism unless the U.K. votes in favor of “No Brexit.”
If, however, the most recent polls prove too optimistic, we can only hope that another European nihilist, Friedrich Nietzsche, was right should the Union dissolve … “That which does not kill us, makes us stronger!”
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