Warren Mosler Comments On Euro, Economy, Non-MFG ISM. Positive

[ 0 ] February 3, 2011 |

FIRST EMAIL REGARDING THE EURO AND US DOLLAR.

Warren Mosler to me

show details 10:24 AM (1 hour ago)

right, the fundamentals to me have started favoring the dollar over the euro but crude prices have kept me cautious.

but now with the rising demand for US exports revealed, declining crude product demand, etc. the dollar could take over big time.

On Thu, Feb 3, 2011 at 10:29 AM, Bob Kurlander wrote:

Warren,

Great call to go long the dollar two days ago.

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

SECOND EMAIL ON ECOMONY

Looks from the chart we’re getting close to the post Bush tax cut, coming out of that recession highs, so we’re on track for our 3-5% real gdp growth guestimates.

And the high productivity reported today reinforces our thoughts on unemployment coming down only slowly as well.

Last time around the expansion phase of what became the sub prime crisis was a substantial contributor to private sector credit growth. Without that kind of contribution form somewhere else this recovery could be more modest than the last.

For exports to be sustained, the govt. would have to keep the dollar down with fx purchases and reserve building, which in my humble opinion isn’t going to happen. that means the adjustment takes place via a climbing US dollar that continues until it dampens exports. Much like what the euro zone has experienced for the last decade or so.

On Thu, Feb 3, 2011 at 11:24 AM, Karim Basta wrote:
Multi-year highs for overall index, new orders (3rd highest on record-chart attached), and employment.
Anecdotes also very positive.
“New initiatives creating increase in spending.” (Finance & Insurance)
“Indications are that business is picking up and that 2011 could see positive growth across many industries. We are seeing an increase in orders at the beginning of the year.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
“Starting to see higher prices in many areas. Low inventory levels are leading to longer delivery time frames.” (Public Administration)
“Business uncertainty seems to be subsiding.” (Management of Companies & Support Services)
“Business activity is picking up. The challenges in the textile market (cotton/polyester) are significantly impacting price along with the inability to secure pricing for a period longer than two months.” (Accommodation & Food Services)
“2011 looking better than 2010.” (Information)
================================
Jan. Dec.
2011 2010
================================
Composite Index 59.4 57.1
Business Activity 64.6 62.9
Prices Paid 72.1 69.5
New Orders 64.9 61.4
Backlog of Orders * 50.5 48.5
Supplier Deliveries* 53.5 51.5
Inventory Change * 49.0 52.5
Inventory Sentiment* 60.0 61.5
Employment 54.5 52.6
New Export Orders * 53.5 56.0
Imports* 53.5 51.0


Because we believe we can be the next Greece, we continue to work to turn ourselves into the next Japan:

‘The 7 Deadly Innocent Frauds’
http://www.moslereconomics.com/2009/12/10/7-deadly-innocent-frauds/
“The most important book ever written”- Elizabeth O’Tool, Jan 8, 2011

The 1997-2001 budget surplus was the longest surplus since the 1927-1930 surplus. Coincidence?

The financial sector is a lot more trouble than it’s worth.

www.moslereconomics.com
http://twitter.com/wbmosler

Share

Tags: ,

Category: Economics, Markets and Trading